Reefer Market Tightens: Rising Tender Rejections Signal Shifting Dynamics

Analytics

Chart of the Week: Reefer Outbound Tender Reject Index and Van Outbound Tender Reject Index – USA

Reefer Outbound Tender Reject Index

The national refrigerated (reefer) tender rejection rates (ROTRI) have been averaging above 14% since early October, compared to around 8% during the same period in 2023. This significant jump and sustained trend suggest the refrigerated truckload market is entering a more challenging transportation procurement environment as we approach the ironically named “protect-from-freeze” season.

Tender rejection rates measure the frequency with which carriers decline load coverage requests from contracted customers due to capacity constraints. Higher rejection rates reflect a favorable environment for truckload operators, indicating that demand exceeds available supply, increasing the value of their services.

While the reefer and dry van truckload markets are loosely connected, national dry van rejection rates (VOTRI) typically correlate with refrigerated rates but operate at a lower level.

In 2019, the ROTRI averaged above 15%, while the VOTRI averaged just over 5%. During the pandemic peak in 2021, the ROTRI surged to nearly 40%, with the VOTRI averaging 23%. Over the past two years, the gap between the two indices has been unusually narrow. In 2023, the ROTRI averaged a historic low of 5.3%, compared with 3.4% for the VOTRI, reflecting a loose truckload market.

Another head fake?

In 2023, the reefer market initially appeared to be tightening, driven by regional disruptions in the Northwest and Midwest.

Reefer Market Dynamics

Northwestern rejection rates neared 50% by late November, while Midwest reefer rejection rates, typically above 8% during the fall, spiked to 13% around Christmas and during January’s arctic cold snap.

The Northwest contributes only about 5% of refrigerated tenders, whereas the Midwest, representing about 35%, has a greater influence on the national average. Consequently, changes in larger-volume regions have a more significant impact.

Rejection rates fell back to near-record lows in the spring as the market recovered on the heels of warmer weather in February and March.

This year, Northwestern rejection rates (ROTRI.URNW) are less pronounced, but rejection rates across other U.S. regions are higher and increasingly volatile. This indicates reduced overall capacity and a more uniformly tightening market, less reliant on seasonal pressures.

On the Spot

Despite rising rejection rates, the spot market has yet to experience significant inflationary pressure. Although national rate-per-mile averages may be skewed by the inclusion of longer hauls, supply and demand imbalances usually become apparent over time.

Spot Market Dynamics

The Reefer Truckload Index (RTI), which tracks average spot rates for refrigerated loads exceeding 250 miles, has been more volatile but has not sustained higher levels than those seen during the summer. Notably, the RTI has not surpassed the weather-driven spike in January, even with two landfalling hurricanes this fall.

This lack of sustained upward pressure suggests that the spot market is not yet experiencing consistent demand growth for refrigerated shipments. Shippers are not resorting to spot market sourcing at levels comparable to last January, relying instead on their existing carrier networks.

However, securing refrigerated capacity in the contracted market is clearly more challenging than in previous years. Reefer contract rates are often below spot prices, reducing the incentive to drive spot rates higher. Instead, carriers are prioritizing seasonal spot freight without significant negotiation.

Winter Outlook

Weather conditions will likely determine how strong this market shift is during the winter months. Reefer trailers, which are not only used for cooling but also for maintaining stable temperatures to protect goods from freezing, play a crucial role in the “protect-from-freeze” season. If this winter is particularly cold, demand for reefer capacity is expected to remain strong.

The van market may not be tightening at the same clip as its refrigerated counterpart, but it will be a determining factor in how sustained this shift in capacity will be.

About the Chart of the Week

The FreightWaves Chart of the Week provides an interesting data point to describe the state of the freight markets. A chart is chosen from thousands of potential charts on SONAR to help participants visualize the freight market in real time. Each week a Market Expert will post a chart, along with commentary, live on the front page. After that, the Chart of the Week will be archived on FreightWaves.com for future reference.

SONAR aggregates data from hundreds of sources, presenting the data in charts and maps and providing commentary on what freight market experts want to know about the industry in real time.

The FreightWaves data science and product teams are releasing new datasets each week and enhancing the client experience. For more information, explore our Shop, Register, or visit our Help Center.

More posts from News

News

FMCSA Active ELD Revoke List and the Importance of Compliance

The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) plays a crucial role in ensuring the safety and reliability of commercial motor vehicles on American roads. As part of their oversight, they mandate the use of Electronic Logging Devices (ELDs) to monitor drivers’ hours of service (HOS) and ensure compliance with federal regulations. However, not all ELDs meet the necessary compliance standards. When a device no longer complies with FMCSA regulations or fails to meet performance standards, it is placed on the **FMCSA ELD Revoked List**. Below, we explore some of the key reasons why an ELD might be revoked and provide a table of current revoked devices.
Regulatory Compliance
Enhanced Safety
Read More

News

How ELDs Improve Fleet Management

In this guide we will explore the various features of ELDs and how they contribute to optimising fleet operations.

News

Why Are ELDs Mandatory For Commercial Trucks?

In this article we will explore the key features and benefits of ELDs, as well as the challenges that drivers and fleet operators may face during implementation.
Laptop

Register and get free access to the system

Registration to get free access to the system for a week and assess its capabilities by yourself

OR
Laptop

Schedule a video call meeting with our manager

Schedule a video call meeting with our manager to see the system in action and understand how it works