Ratings Surge: Patriot Rail’s Financial Restructuring Draws In-Depth Analysis from Top Agencies

Analytics

Ratings Surge: Patriot Rail’s Financial Restructuring Draws In-Depth Analysis from Top Agencies

Shortline operator Patriot Rail, known formally as NA Rail, is currently in the midst of a financial transformation. This strategic move towards refinancing has caught the attention of not one, but three major ratings agencies—a rarity in the industry. Typically, companies opt for assessments from just one or two agencies.

The subject of this analysis is a substantial $440 million debt issue aimed at refinancing existing debts, rewarding shareholders with dividends, and covering transitional fees. Additionally, Patriot Rail plans to replace a $40 million senior secured revolving credit facility (RCF) with a more robust five-year $50 million senior secured RCF.

The spotlight from ratings giants Moody's, Fitch Ratings, and S&P Global Ratings underscores the intricate dynamics of this issue. While revenue and income specifics are typically undisclosed for privately held firms, Moody's has offered a peek, estimating Patriot Rail's revenue to hit $198 million by 2024. S&P Global anticipates a revenue growth of 4% to 6% within the year.

Divergent Ratings and Financial Implications

The agency ratings diverge significantly, spanning three notches. S&P affirms a Long Term Issuer rating at the B- level. Moody’s positions Patriot a notch higher at B2, while Fitch Ratings bestows the highest, granting a B+ in its initial rating of Patriot. Intriguingly, for the exact debt issue in question, Fitch's notably higher BB rating stands three notches above Moody’s B2 and four above S&P’s B-.

Despite the diverse ratings, all are entrenched deeply within non-investment-grade territory.

Patriot Rail, owning 31 shortline railroads predominantly in the Midwest, is recognized for its “modest” revenue scale, with notable concentrations in packaging and paper transport. Moody's notes Patriot Rail’s limited competition from intermodal railroads, reducing its exposure to truckload rivalry.

Financial Profiles and Cash Flow Strengths

Moody's forecasts a strong operating margin exceeding 25%. On the other hand, Fitch Ratings anticipates free cash flow in the range of $15 million to $30 million. Fitch hails Patriot’s network as “established” and “geographically diverse,” enabling reduced exposure to intermodal and trucking competition.

“Patriot’s stability is underpinned by its established portfolio of diverse, difficult-to-replicate rail assets,” Fitch emphasizes, underscoring the bespoke services that short line railroads offer, supporting a resilient supply chain role.

Each agency pegs Patriot Rail’s debt-to-EBITDA ratio near 5.5X—a critical metric for debt-service viability assessment. Moody’s and S&P’s projections sit at around 5.5X and 5.4X, respectively, while Fitch estimates it at 5.6X, attributing strengthening trends to growth capex project completions.

Shareholder Reinvestment Dynamics

Among Patriot Rail's stakeholders, Igneo Infrastructure Partners stands out. Despite sanctioning a $42 million dividend, Igneo commits to reinject $25 million back into Patriot for growth initiatives.

While S&P Global offers ratings below investment grade, it commends Patriot’s expansive strategy. S&P writes, “We view Patriot’s business as stronger than before due to its increased size, reduced customer concentration, and expansion into new industries.” Such expansions include diverging from low-margin port businesses to areas like warehousing, transloading, and excursion railroads, post-acquisition by Igneo.

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