Freight Market Insights: Unpacking the Current Dynamics
This week’s FreightWaves Supply Chain Pricing Power Index: 35 (Shippers)
Last week’s FreightWaves Supply Chain Pricing Power Index: [35 (Shippers)](https://www.freightwaves.com/news/is-thanksgiving-going-to-disrupt-the-status-quo)
Three-month FreightWaves Supply Chain Pricing Power Index Outlook: 40 (Shippers)
The FreightWaves Supply Chain Pricing Power Index leverages sophisticated analytics and data from FreightWaves SONAR to assess market conditions and gauge the rate negotiation strength between carriers and shippers.
Volumes Rebound Yet Lag Year-Over-Year
Following the Thanksgiving holiday, freight tender volumes have surged but remain subdued compared to last year. Historically, December witnesses a slowdown due to festivities in the later half of the month compounded by sluggish business activities. Observing the current market landscape, a notable volume surge before year-end is improbable.
Analyzing the Metrics
The Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI), vital for measuring freight demand by tracking shipping capacity requests, climbed 16.28% post-holiday. However, scrutinizing a two-week period reveals a 7.3% decline. When compared to last year, volumes plummeted by 11%, indicating the Thanksgiving lull still lingers.
Among various mileage bands, midhaul volumes (250-400 miles) fared relatively better, contracting by just 3.04% over two weeks.
Rejection Rates Retreat from Holiday Peaks
After reaching a peak for the year, tender rejection rates have dipped below 6%. Despite tracking closely with trends from 2019, the market hasn’t seen a breakout similar to that year. However, positive trends suggest sustainable growth, unaffected by major spikes due to holidays.
Capacity and Market Equilibrium
The Outbound Tender Reject Index (OTRI) indicates a downward trend of 33 basis points to 5.98% over the week, albeit 230 basis points higher than last year. Capacity has exited the market, granting carriers marginally more choice than the previous year.
Spot Rates: A Persistent Elevation Over the Year
With tender rejection rates receding and capacity readjusting, spot rates have conceded recent gains yet persist above last year's levels. The National Truckload Index, inclusive of fuel and accessorial charges, fell by 5 cents per mile to $2.38, still 4 cents higher than last year.
Contract rates remain stable, reflecting cautious optimism from shippers aware of potential market fluctuations. The spread between contract and spot rates shows a narrowing trend, suggestive of decreasing volatility.
Conclusion
Freight dynamics post-Thanksgiving showcase a unique blend of challenges and opportunities as the industry braces for the end of the year. Shifts in volume, rejection rates, and spot rates all underline the complex freight landscape, urging stakeholders to navigate these tides with awareness and adaptability.
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