Longshore Strikes on the Horizon? Analyzing the Odds and Impacts
While negotiations on a new East Coast longshore contract remain at a standstill, online bettors aren’t convinced a January strike is inevitable.
Betting on a Strike
Users of crypto predictions platform Polymarket on Thursday rated odds of a work stoppage at 43%, down from a high of 64% on November 13, but up 28% in intraday betting.
Breakdown of Negotiations
The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) broke off talks with the United States Maritime Alliance on November 13. The union cited employer attempts to replace workers by forcing automation technology into a new contract. However, USMX countered, asserting its goal wasn’t to reduce the workforce, but to make container handling more efficient, increase throughput, and ultimately create more jobs.
Recent Strike and Future Prospects
After the Biden administration helped end the ILA’s three-day strike in early October, both parties agreed to extend the current contract and continue negotiations through January 15.
Union Concerns
The ILA represents 45,000 workers in container and vehicle handling at 36 maritime centers on the East and Gulf coasts. The October job action jeopardized billions of dollars in daily trade, ranging from food and pharmaceuticals to apparel and auto parts.
The union, in a statement, highlighted rail-mounted gantry cranes as a major concern. The ILA warned that remote-operated cranes, similar to those in Asia and Europe, present a significant security risk to U.S. maritime operations. This concern echoed a recent Coast Guard warning to container hubs.
Political Influence
Despite President Joe Biden's refusal to force longshore employees back to work, it's unclear how the incoming Trump administration will respond to another strike. Interestingly, ILA President Harold Daggett recently shared a photo of himself with a smiling Donald Trump, taken during a meeting with the then-presidential candidate.
For more insights, explore articles by Stuart Chirls here.
Related coverage:
- [Chicago intermodal no longer a bridge too far for Indiana port](Help Center)
- [Union, employers resume war of words in East Coast port contract dispute](Help Center)
- [Container rates buoyed by tariff, strike threats](Help Center)
The post initially appeared on FreightWaves.