Freight Volumes Plunge in December as Rates Firm Up - What This Means for the Industry

Analytics

Understanding December's Freight Dynamics

December brought surprising shifts in the freight industry. Recent data from Cass Information Systems indicated a sharp drop in freight shipments, yet the pattern of expenditures suggests a firming in freight rates.

According to the report, Truckload linehaul rates have seen continuous improvement since August's cycle low. Let's delve into the key figures and trends that marked this notable period.

  • The Cass Freight Index shows a 7.3% decrease in freight volumes from November, marking a 6.5% decrease year-over-year.
  • Excluding typical seasonal downturns, the index dropped by 3.1%, negating November's gains.

This marked the largest year-over-year decline in the shipments index since January 2024 and the lowest reading since June 2020.

“Midweek holidays and advanced freight deliveries to avoid a potential dockworker strike added to the slowdown noise in December,” revealed the report.

Analyzing the Shift in Freight Rates

While overall freight volumes declined, expenditures were only marginally lower, pointing to rising rates.

  • Freight expenditures fell 2.6% sequentially, showing a 3.4% year-over-year decrease. Yet, freight rates improved, with a 3.3% estimated increase year-over-year.
  • The Truckload Linehaul Index, excluding fuel surcharges, rose by 1.2% compared to the previous month, nearing a positive year-over-year shift for the first time in two years.

These trends suggest the freight industry is attempting to stabilize rates amidst volatile shipment volumes.

Contract Load Accepted Volume Index

Looking Ahead

As January unfolds, volumes remain sluggish, influenced by broad winter storms and economic uncertainties relating to new trade policies.

The report forecasts a 6% year-over-year decrease in January volumes, with the expectation of stabilization later in the year.

The Cass Freight Index emphasizes trucking, comprising truckload, less-than-truckload, railroad, and parcel sectors, revealing pressures from ongoing capacity additions in the market.

Conclusion

December's plunge in freight shipments contrasted with firming rates encapsulates a complex market response, balancing between volumes and cost structures. Keeping abreast of these developments is critical for decision-makers in logistics and freight operations.

For industry professionals seeking in-depth insights into freight dynamics, explore programs and solutions at firsteld.com.

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