Benchmark Diesel Price Plummets to Lowest in Over Three Years

Analytics

Benchmark Diesel Price Plummets to Lowest in Over Three Years

Not since October 2021 has the benchmark diesel price used for most fuel surcharges been this low.

With a remarkable decline of 8.2 cents a gallon from the prior week's average retail diesel price, the cost has now sunk to $3.458 a gallon. Posted by the Department of Energy/Energy Information Administration, this decrease marks the largest in almost a year. Not since a 9.3-cent decline on December 21, 2023, has there been such a drop. The current price is also the lowest since it touched $3.477 on October 4, 2021 - several months before geopolitical tensions from the Russian invasion of Ukraine sent prices soaring above $5 a gallon.

The latest descent in the price benchmarks comes amid continued decreases in ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) prices on the CME commodity exchange. Although there have been sporadic increases, the overall trend has been a downward slide.

ULSD settled at $2.3042 a gallon on November 5th, following Election Day. A swift post-election dip brought the ULSD settlement to $2.1709 on November 15th. Despite brief hikes, the price remained at $2.2749 a gallon on November 22nd.

Yet, the trend persists in falling. The $2.1326 settlement on Friday was the lowest since October 28th. A rally on Monday added just over 5 cents per gallon to ULSD prices, settling at $2.1835. This was seen as a reaction to geopolitical tensions following the fall of Assad's regime in Syria and China's economic stimulus announcements, rather than a shift in oil market fundamentals.

While there is a noticeable lack of short-term bearish news, neither are there significant bullish cues to suggest imminent price hikes. This is the key factor driving the OPEC+ group's decision last week to stretch out plans to roll back production cuts.

The gradual rollback, originally set to start in December, has been postponed until April by OPEC+ - a coalition of OPEC and non-OPEC oil exporters led nominally by Russia. Their strategy now extends the rollback through to the end of 2026 instead of accomplishing it by 2025.

Tariffs, China, and Demand: Uncertainties

Helima Croft, managing director and global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, highlighted in a CNBC interview significant global market uncertainties like tariffs, Iranian sanctions under the Trump regime, and general demand forecasts.

“Weak Chinese demand has really been a problem for the oil market,” Croft noted. “This year, people will be watching closely to discern the tariff impact on supply.”

However, Croft's forecasts lean towards bearishness. The RBC projections, shared among oil market followers on Monday, forecast an average global crude benchmark Brent price of $68.50 a barrel, descending to $63 in Q4 and an average of $65.50 for 2025. The 2026 prediction is $62.25 per barrel. Brent settled at $72.14 a barrel on Monday.

Moves by Saudi Arabia

An evidently bearish market player, Saudi Arabia has notified its Asian customers of an 80-cent-a-barrel cut in its price formula for the region, according to Bloomberg.

Arab Light, Saudi Arabia's primary grade, will be sold at a 90-cent premium to Oman and Dubai crude benchmarks starting January, down from $1.70 in December. Though a decrease in the premium was anticipated, the deeper cut is seen as an unmistakable bearish indicator by the Saudis.

Saudi prices set benchmarks against Oman and Dubai crude prices. An uptick in the benchmark price equates to higher customer costs, but the spread serves as a telling barometer of Saudi Arabia's market outlook.

While a drop to $1 a barrel was anticipated, the more significant reduction signals a gloomy market perspective.

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