Rejection Rates Surge to New Heights – Navigating the Complexities of the Truckload Market

Analytics

Rejection Rates Surge to New Heights – Navigating the Complexities of the Truckload Market

Chart of the Week: Outbound Tender Reject Index, National Truckload Index (linehaul only) – USA.

The national Outbound Tender Reject Index (OTRI), which measures how often truckload carriers decline freight requests, surpassed 10% for the first time since April 2022, during the Christmas holiday. Spot rates also reached nearly 10% higher than in the previous year.

While this indicates a decrease in available capacity, making conditions tougher for shippers, the situation could potentially be more challenging from a transportation management perspective.

The truckload market often reflects its peaks and valleys through tender rejection rates. Although seasonality typically defines market trends, the pandemic has disrupted these patterns, leading to cycles of over- and undersupply.

Market Dynamics and Strategy

Emerging from a prolonged stretch of oversupply, we're witnessing these seasonal peaks resurface, with Christmas marking a notable high. Last year's peak at 5.6% illustrated an easier landscape for transportation sourcing, with manageable load-to-truck ratios.

Conversely, during the pandemic, the OTRI hovered above 20% for nearly 18 months, signifying substantial sourcing challenges for transportation managers. This ongoing transition away from a reliable sourcing environment introduces volatility and unpredictability, complicating logistical planning.

Shipper Strategies for Market Volatility

To adjust to market volatility, shippers are increasing lead times, the interval between a shipment request and its pickup. This trend persists even in relatively flexible markets, with shippers providing roughly half a day more notice to carriers than in 2019.

Additionally, intermodal transport has regained popularity, with domestic-size containers experiencing over a 10% year-over-year increase in December. International containers are remaining on trains longer and moving further inland, easing pressure on trucking capacity, especially on the West Coast.

Inventory management strategies now focus on minimizing the gap between warehouses and consumers. Middle haul loads have decreased by 8% year-over-year, while local hauls under 100 miles have increased by 6%, reflecting a strategic shift.

The combination of just-in-time inventory at downstream points and just-in-case stockpiling upstream accommodates ongoing geopolitical risks since 2020. While shifting manufacturing sources remains arduous, maintaining inventories in remote areas is a viable, cost-effective solution.

The Road Ahead for Trucking

Despite these efforts, the market responds dynamically due to reduced demand. An extreme imbalance between demand and available capacity has led to a record number of carrier exits, netting approximately 41,000 fewer carriers since mid-2022.

Had shippers reverted entirely to pre-COVID strategies, holiday periods could have introduced chaos to the truckload market. Yet, these strategies have facilitated a smoother transition, which benefits everyone involved. As capacity continues to decrease amid economic and geopolitical uncertainties, supply chain and transportation managers will face substantial challenges in the coming years.

About the Chart of the Week

The FreightWaves Chart of the Week is selected from thousands of charts on SONAR to illustrate freight market conditions in real-time. Market experts provide insights each week, archived for public reference.

SONAR aggregates diverse data to support industry professionals with actionable insights. For more information on SONAR features and datasets, visit our [Help Center](Help Center).

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The original article appeared on FreightWaves.

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